Issues Regarding R Factor Probabilities|
By R. Edwin Sherman
Bauscher's book, Divine Contact, refers in several places to probabilities indicated by CodeFinder software for various extended codes that he has found. There is a fundamental problem with this, which most CodeFinder users also share as a weakness. There are basically two types of probabilities of the occurrence of a code that can be calculated. As with most code aficionados, Bauscher cites the first kind of probability when the real probability of interest is the second kind.
The two types of probabilities are:
- The probability that an entire, pre-selected term has been found as an ELS.
- The probability that an extended code has been found (in good Hebrew or Aramaic), given that a short initial search term has already been found, where the extensions to the initial term were not pre-selected, but rather were discovered by examining the letters before and after the initial term that would be part of a longer ELS, if such existed.
Since the second type of probability fits what the code researcher did in obtaining a lengthy code, it is the one that should be cited, and yet the first type of probability is very commonly cited. The first type should only be cited when the entire ELS has been pre-selected before any search was conducted.
As an illustration of this issue, let us look at a 61-letter-long code Bauscher found. Bauscher started with the search term the Peshitta is and found it with a skip of minus 35,348. He then looked for extensions of this initial term and ended up with the following code: He was familiar in his cry to the Spirit. And who has not praised us from Yahweh for the Man of the tree? It was not because He put to death the Pure One. It is, "Oh that He would save! And He would grant peace to this One!"
In this code, the original search term of the Peshitta is was translated as the Pure One, which is another translation of . Bauscher cites an R Factor of 62.98 for this code, and states that "the odds against this sequence of Aramaic words occurring by chance are 10 to the 63rd power to 1." He would be correct about the odds if he had originally typed into CodeFinder the entire 61 letters of the code, and he had only conducted one code search.
What actually happened is that Bauscher typed in the Peshitta is in his CodeFinder search program, found it with a skip of minus 35,348, and then took every 35,348th letter before and after his original search term. He then found 10 extension phrases surrounding his original search term:
In an earlier experiment conducted by BCD, we sent strings of Hebrew letters surrounding original search terms found in the Old Testament and in a Hebrew translation of Tolstoy's War and Peace to our Hebrew experts. We noted that in the obviously non-encoded text, both of our Hebrew experts found extensions within the strings we provided 19.4% and 18.7% of the time there was an opportunity to find an extension.
Suppose we assume that the odds of finding an extension to an initial search term are 20% in a non-encoded text. We also found, as noted in Appendix Six of Bible Code Bombshell, that there was a 37.5% chance that the extension found in the non-encoded text would be relevant or plausible in content. So, that would give us a combined probability of finding an extension that was relevant or plausible in content of 7.5%. Then, according to Appendix B (on our site), the expected number of final ELSs consisting of 10 extensions is 11x[(0.075)^10]x(0.855625), or 5.3 E-11. This means that the odds against an ELS with 10 extensions is 1 in 18,867,000,000 of being found by chance if the text were not encoded. That's assuming he only conducted one search. If instead he had conducted 100 such searches, the odds against finding a code this extensive would still be about 1 in 188,670,000 — still rationally near the outer limits of what chance could be expected to produce.
So saying, using the R Factor as a basis for calculating the odds against occurrence by chance overstates the improbability. However, it should still be noted that the odds against chance occurrence of Bauscher's finding are actually about 1 in 18.8 billion.
That means his finding is extremely significant. Period. And he has made a number of comparable long-code discoveries in the Peshitta.
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